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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • I recall hearing that there’s a correlation with being good at sports and having a birthday earlier in the school year. Reason being, at a young age, on average there’s a big advantage to being 6 months older, and that advantage can often result in a positive feedback loop. You get selected more for showing aptitude and thus receive more training, which results in being selected more.










  • Moreover, that’s not how probability works in independent events.

    It’d be like saying “I flipped coin A 1 billion times and got half a billion heads, so now that I’m flipping coin B 100 times, I probably won’t get any more heads.”

    It should be fairly obvious that you can say the exact same statement about tails, and get a completely contradictory statement.


  • Yeah, I was trying to compute the “ballpark” of the odds, but it’s actually hard to do because of how astronomically improbable it is. Even computation systems that are designed to compute rather big/small numbers (think 100,000,000^1,000,000 big) fail.

    Here’s another example: If a human only had 1,000 gut microbes, the chance that over 900 of them get snapped is 1 in ~10^162 [WA]. (This was roughly the biggest number I could get WA to yield a non-zero answer for a >90% snap.)

    Now if you do that for every human on earth, the probability is still essentially zero. [WA]

    When you consider that humans don’t have 1000 gut microbes, they have over 10 trillion, it’s just mind bogglingly improbable.